Pai Gow Poker Probabilities
When playing casino games, all outcomes should be looked at according to their probabilities. The degree to which a player can positively or negatively affect these probabilities depends on the game. In most card games, for example, wins, losses and game and pot odds are greatly affected by player decisions and the poker math players employ after making each of these decisions. The same cannot be said of Pai Gow Poker odds.
Pai Gow Poker odds are unique because they are pretty much fixed. There are really only two factors that can improve your Pai Gow Poker odds: the first is increasing the ratio between how much you bet when you are the banker vs. how much you bet when you are the player; the second is how you decide to split your hands.
Lucky for you, you don’t have to deal with many of the complicated poker math calculations that govern other types of poker. Complicated strategies like accepting additional cards and using a pot odds calculator have no bearing here.
But, while Pai Gow Poker odds may appear to be so simple as to be disregarded, there are still some basic Pai Gow Poker odds that every player should be aware of before sitting down to a game. Casinobest.co.uk covers these below.
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Pai Gow Poker Odds: The House Edge
Let’s start with the absolute fundamentals. Any player participating in any type of casino game should be concerned with the house edge. Here, the house edge averages 2.85%. This means that those who play Poker Pai Gow forfeit an average $0.028 for every dollar bet.
A 2.85% house edge does seem like a lot at first glance, but because this percentage is calculated based on perfect player decisions – and how often does that actually happen? – it is often much higher.
Naturally, fluctuations in house advantage will occur based on how well or how poorly a player divides his hands.
Even more important, however, is how much of the game action a player banks. The idea is that one should never pass up an opportunity to be banker, provided, of course, he has enough bankroll to meet the minimum bet requirements for each player. The banker position carries a much lower house edge than the standard player position.
Below are two charts. The first displays statistical probability for each of the game’s three possible outcomes. The second displays the average house edge according to a simple player versus dealer match.
Pai Gow Poker Probabilities – Game Outcome
| Outcome | Probability |
| Player Wins Both Hands | 28.61% |
| Tie | 41.48% |
| Banker Wins Both Hands | 29.91% |
House Edge in One on One Pai Gow Poker
| Position | House Edge |
| Player | 2.85% |
| Banker | .12% |
| Combined | 1.46% |
As you can see, the Pai Gow Poker odds that the banker wins both hands is lower than a push, the most common outcome, but beats the average player wins both hands outcome by 1.3%. Combine this with the much lower banker house edge and you can see how your potential earnings can substantially increase when you place higher bets while sitting in the banker position.
Pai Gow Poker Odds: A Fixed Game
Those who play Poker Pai Gow agree that one of the most assuring aspects of the game is that it is standardized. Dealers face the same set of rules you face. You must split your cards; the dealer must split his cards. There is absolutely no way to manipulate Pai Gow Poker math in order to favor the house beyond its existing house edge.
Below is a third chart. It lists possible 5-card hands, their potential number of outcomes and the statistical probability for making these hands. This information is crucial for splitting your 5-card hand to your best advantage. Knowing the Pai Gow Poker odds for making a hand also means knowing the Pai Gow Poker odds against it.
Again, there is no need for complicated anaysis or a pot odds calculator. Simply commit this chart to memory and you’ll have a profound advantage over many competitors.
Pai Gow Poker Probabilities – Hand CombinationsHand # of Possible Combinations Probability Five Aces 1,128 .00000732 Straight / Royal Flush 210,964 .00136862 4 of a Kind 307,472 .00199472 Full House 4,188,528 .02717299 Flush 6,172,088 .04004129 Straight 11236028 .07289350 3 of a Kind 7470676 .04846585 Two Pair 35553816 .23065464 Pair 64,221,960 .41663862 Nothing 24,780,420 .16076246 Total 154,143,080 1