Odds & Probabilities: The Math behind the Numbers
Understanding Blackjack odds is essential if you want to beat Blackjack. Many beginners mistakenly believe that acquiring a few simple techniques is enough to win. After all, they reason, the house advantage is one of the lowest house edges among casino games. Unfortunately, this is only really true when one plays with exceptional strategy, and to do this requires understanding Blackjack math.
Enter Casinobest.co.uk Our Blackjack odds charts and Blackjack probability stats provide the perfect platform for winning. Collectively, they act as a sort of “Blackjack cheat sheet” that provides the Blackjack secrets player hoping to beat Blackjack should have.
It doesn’t take a genius to grasp the logic behind Blackjack odds and probabilities, and at Casinobest.co.uk, we’ve made it even easier. The term “Blackjack odds” most frequently refers to your odds of winning or losing-whether a single hand or the entire session. “Blackjack probability” is typically used in reference to how likely it is that you or the dealer will receive a specific hand. The term is also applied to a player’s likelihood of busting should he hit with a certain hand. Odds are usually expressed as ratios or fractions while probabilities are usually expressed as percentages.
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Blackjack Odds: Player vs. Dealer Advantage
The advantage of knowing both the odds and probabilities is that it makes some moves more obvious.
- Blackjack Probability – Example #1
If you know that the probability of the dealer hitting a natural is a mere 4.82%, the argument against buying insurance is much clearer.
- Blackjack Probability – Example #2
If know that have a higher than 50% probability of busting if you hit on a hand of 14 or more, it is easier to understand why some players stand when the dealer shows a hand of 16 or less.
The house rule that dictates that a dealer hit on anything less than 17 is what gives you your advantage, while the house rule that allows the dealer to make his moves after all the players is what gives him his advantage.
Blackjack Math, Blackjack Odds Charts & Other Blackjack Secrets
Blackjack odds will change minutely depending on varying house rules, different table rules and on how many decks are in use. In many cases, the easiest way for a new player to learn Blackjack odds and probabilities is by consulting a simple Blackjack odds chart (a.k.a. “Blackjack cheat sheet”). These best of Blackjack secrets show players the optimal move for each possible player/dealer hand combination.
Just be sure that the Blackjack cheat sheet you use is accurate for the game you’re playing. For example, most cheat sheets are designed for tables where the dealer stands at 17; if you are playing at a table where the dealer stands at 16, this will affect the ideal move for several hands.
The below table lists the chances of busting on a single hit where the current hand value is 11 or more.
| Total Hand Value | Probability for Busting if Player Hits |
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
The below Blackjack odds chart displays perfect Blackjack strategy* according to various dealer and player hands.
| Player Hand | Dealer Up Card | |
| Hard Hands | 2 – 6 | 7 – Ace |
| 4 – 8 | HIT | HIT |
| 9 | Dbl (w/ more than dealer) | HIT |
| 10 or 11 | Dbl (w/ more than dealer) | Dbl (w/ more than dealer) |
| 12 – 16 | Stand | HIT |
| 17 – 21 | Stand | Stand |
| Soft Hands | ||
| 13 – 15 | HIT | HIT |
| 16 – 18 | Dbl | HIT |
| 19 – 21 | Stand | Stand |
| Should I Split? | ||
| 2/2, 3/3, 6/6, 7/7, 9/9 | YES | NO |
| 8/8, A/A | YES | YES |
| 4/4, 5/5, 10/10 | NO | NO |
*Additional Strategy:
Surrender 16 vs. 10.
Do not post insurance bets.
If your strategy advises that you double but it isn’t allowed, hit instead (except on soft 18).
Blackjack Odds: Number of Decks & Casino Software Variations
Online gamblers often worry that their games are programmed to beat Blackjack players. While online games do make it almost impossible to count cards, secure software ensures that Blackjack odds remain intact. Today’s software is designed to provide the same Blackjack odds as those found in live games.
That said, just as the deck size or rules will change from table to table, different online casinos use different software platforms. This, in turn, means differing Blackjack odds. If you’re serious about making the most of your in-game strategy, you’ll want to determine which set of Blackjack odds and the number of decks a site’s software is programmed to use.