Baccarat Probability & the Best Bets for Beating Baccarat Odds
Fans of casino games appreciate Baccarat odds because they provide a better chance of winning thanks to a low house edge. The game is structured in such a way that bettors make few decisions and, in general, risk less than they might playing other casino card games.
In addition to understanding the game’s flow and its unique hand valuation, one of the only prerequisites for getting in the game is possessing a basic knowledge of Baccarat odds. To enhance your understanding of Baccarat odds, Casinobest.co.uk has collected the most important Baccarat payouts and Baccarat probability charts. Enjoy and good luck!
WHERE TO PLAY BACCARAT
Baccarat Odds: Rule of Thumb #1 – Table Selection
The best means of establishing winning Baccarat odds is by selecting an optimal table. By this we mean choosing a table with the fewest number of decks in play.
Most standard Baccarat tables employ an eight deck shoe. This means that there are many cards in play and many of them are face cards. Keeping in mind that face cards have a value of zero and that the best “how to win at Baccarat” advice involves betting on the highest hand, it follows that the lesser the number of face cards in play, the greater the likelihood you will win.
Accordingly, selecting a table with fewer than 8 decks in use will increase your opportunities for winning Baccarat. Below is a Baccarat probability chart indicating Baccarat odds for tables with 6 and 8 decks.
| No. of Decks | Banker Baccarat Odds | Player Baccarat Odds | Tie Baccarat Odds |
| 6 | 45.87% | 44.63% | 9.5% |
| 8 | 45.86% | 44.62% | 9.52% |
Baccarat Odds: Word of Caution #2 – Tracking Outcomes
Many casinos provide pens and paper to players in order that they keep records of winning Baccarat hands. There are a surprising number of players who believe that tracking outcomes is an effective strategy and one that can overcome Baccarat odds. These players believe that, as with other casino card games like blackjack and poker, card counting and probabilities are a factor in their success.
This is a fallacy that, unfortunately, prevents many players from placing smart bets and encourages them, instead, to bet on chance.
Baccarat Odds: Significant Note #3 – House Edge
You can’t track the numbers, but you can make betting decisions that will reduce the Baccarat odds against you. The lowest house edge is on the banker bet-an average 1.1%. Because of its statistically low house edge, casinos often charge a 4-5% commission on banker wins, which is typically offset by its win/loss ratio. Player bets have an average 1.29% house edge. Both are very low when compared to other casino games.
The same cannot be said of the tie bet, which is popular among high rollers and adventure seekers due to its incredible 8 to 1 payout percentage.
But don’t let the lure of easy money fool you into making this bet. Of the three possible bet options, it hits only an average 9.5% of the time (see above chart). It also carries an astronomically high 14% average house edge, which is the worst house edge across both on land and online casino games. It even beats the high commissions on slots and keno games.
The below Baccarat payouts chart displays house advantages based on casino commissions on Banker hands of 4% and 5% and Baccarat payouts on Tie bets at 9:1 and 8:1.
| No. of Decks | Banker Bet (5% commission) | Banker Bet (4% commission) | Player Bet | Tie Bet at 9:1 | Tie Bet at 8:1 |
| 1 | 1.01% | 1.29% | 15.57% | ||
| 6 | 1.056% | .597% | 1.237% | 4.93% | 14.44% |
| 8 | 1.058% | .599% | 1.235% | 4.84% | 14.36% |
Baccarat Odds: Worthy of Mention #4 – Low Table Stakes
While this is not directly related to Baccarat odds, it is worth mentioning that finding a table with low stakes is a good idea for all but the richest of players. Higher stakes games, while they have exactly the same Baccarat odds, cause you to go through your money very quickly. Managing your money properly and playing at a table whose stakes are within your bankroll’s budget will ensure a lengthy and enjoyable playing session.
As with any game, the bottom on how to win at Baccarat is making sure you know your game, you know your Baccarat odds, you find a good table in a reputable casino and you enjoy your session. The rest, as they say, is up to the cards.